"However unpalatable the fact, the real reason why we have wars is that men like fighting, and women like those men who are prepared to fight on their behalf."
- Martin van Creveld, The Transformation of War
Men love war. For most men, it has a romantic appeal. An appeal to something deep within themselves. Of those men who have experienced the horrors of war, many still crave it. This is a fact of nature.
And so, I can empathise with people like the convicted Boeremag men. They identified an injustice, and planned actions to rectify the situation. You don't have to agree with their opinion about whether whites are persecuted, to put yourselves in their shoes. It is easy to get swept up in the idea of starting a war to make the world better. It happens to all men, from lowly farmers to presidents.
But my empathy doesn't make their choice wise or prudent. Let's look at the situation the Boeremag found themselves in. They are members of a minority, less than 9% of the population, assuming you count all whites. Of those whites, only about 60% are Afrikaners. The Bantu majority are almost 80% of the people. We can safely assume practically every non-white person in South Africa is opposed to a violent white rebellion. Anecdotally, I would say at least three quarters of all non-Afrikaner whites would also be opposed, and about half of the Afrikaners as well. A bit of arithmetic puts that around 3.5% in favour of a white rebellion, against 96.5% opposed. In a strictly conventional fight, confined to the first three generations of modern warfare, those odds are pretty insurmountable.
No matter how skilled the white rebels are militarily, those numbers mean they only have the ability to win tactical engagements. At the operational and strategic levels, they are almost certainly doomed. "Quantity has a quality all its own." I have previously discussed how the dilute dispersion of whites throughout the country isn't in their favour. It is even less so during a war. When you are outnumbered globally, your only hope is to concentrate your forces and outnumber the enemy locally. But at close to 30-to-1 odds, with whites not having a local majority anywhere, that concentration is unlikely.
But luckily for our subjects, it's a 4th Generation Warfare world we live in. Unluckily, that has implications that make their erstwhile plan even worse. In the other generations of war, you only consider the tactical, operational and strategic levels. In 4GW, you must also consider the physical, mental and moral levels. Just as winning tactically doesn't trump losing strategically (as the German Blitzkrieg didn't counteract their two front war against major powers), so winning physically doesn't trump losing morally, or even mentally. Ask the 1970's American military, bewildered at their loss in Vietnam despite their dominance on the battlefield. Or ask an ex-SADF troop, who wonders how the ANC came to power when their military wing was so worthless.
As van Creveld says, there comes a point where the usual calculus of war inverts. Where being a tiny minority gives you more power. Unfortunately for white South Africans, that point hasn't arrived for them yet. The vast majority of blacks in South Africa still see whites as the powerful ruling class. The vast majority of the world still sees whites, no matter where, as powerful oppressors. And so any violence by whites against another group is seen as immoral. Justified or not. Even many whites seem to feel that way, whether they've been shamed into feeling that way or are trying to signal their virtue. When even your own side sees you as the oppressor, you need to focus on changing the narrative more than plotting to blow stuff up.
And so, for now, violence is not the answer. With luck and wisdom and hard work and God's grace, it may never be. This is not to say that you should not arm yourself and defend yourself if attacked. I am not a pacifist, and violent crime is still a problem. This is to say that a violent rebellion at this point in history is doomed to failure. Even if it isn't betrayed from within, as it seems was the case with the Boeremag. The time for principled defeat, if there ever was such, is not now. Plan for victory.
But a victory requires at least two things. First, a clearly defined goal, so that you know when you have won. And second, the goal must be achievable. The Boeremag had a goal: overthrow and replace the ANC government with a Boer government. That goal is clearly defined, but it is not achievable. There is no sense hoping for the impossible. One must be more realistic. Controlling the entire country with a minority less than 10% of the population is not likely in the foreseeable future. But peace, self-determination and freedom are perhaps possible. Even if you have to cede most of your historical territory to other nations to achieve it.
And while I specifically addressed the Boeremag here, this also applies to many people I've sat around a braai with. The windgat bravery and murkily remembered diensplig training don't change the facts, and won't achieve much if that's all they have to offer. I pray they have more during this Fourth Turning.
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