Wednesday 7 March 2018

Antifragility and the Pareto Principle

I've heard the Pareto Principle stated as "80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes", as well as "half the results come from the square root of the number of participants". Adjusting for economies of scale, this implies that the smaller and more decentralised, the better.

If we apply this to politics, we get the (originally Catholic) doctrine of subsidiarity. I can think of two examples of countries applying subsidiarity, although the first hasn't really been decentralised for quite some time now.

The USA is the United States of America. The USA were previously the united States of America. Now a singular empire, the US was originally a confederation of independent and sovereign states. It was during this phase of their history that they developed their reputation for freedom and the industrial backbone that would carry them to superpower status.

My second example is Switzerland, officially known as the Swiss Confederation. A confederation, of 26 semi-sovereign cantons, which is reportedly so loose that many Swiss don't even know the federal president's name. World-renowned for their wealth, they have also had over 200 years of peace.

Decentralising government to the lowest levels possible allows 50 or 26 groups to experiment to find the best solutions to life's problems. It gives a higher proportion of people (square root of the total divided by the total number of people) who are productive. It is a 3rd Generation Warfare solution, elegant in its simplicity.

And it is the antifragile way as well. It opens up options, has a limited downside and a large upside. If one sub-state fails, not all is lost and it takes less for it to recover. But if one sub-state prospers, all of them can learn from the knowledge and experience and wisdom.

This has worked for the largest Christian church in the world; the world's only superpower; a military so skilled even its enemies call it the best they'd ever seen; the country most famous throughout the world for its wealth; and an investor so rich he says he has "f*** you money". It's time to ask: Is decentralisation right for your country too?

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